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Ceq(t)=C∗⋅2 t/τ,τ≈8 monthsC_{\mathrm{eq}}(t) = C^{*} \cdot 2^{\,t/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 8\ \mathrm{months}

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Second, the meaning of a fixed number drifts, and quickly . Ho and colleagues, analysing more than two hundred language-model evaluations from 2012 to 2023, estimated that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved roughly every eight months, with a 95% confidence interval of about five to fourteen months [ 19 ] . If a threshold is fixed at C∗C^{*} and efficiency improves with a halving time τ\tau , the capability reachable below the threshold grows as though the budget were expanding: Ceq(t)=C∗⋅2 t/τ,τ≈8 monthsC_{\mathrm{eq}}(t) = C^{*} \cdot 2^{\,t/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 8\ \mathrm{months}. The analysis that follows is mine rather than the authors’. Taking the central estimate at face value, a threshold left unamended for two years admits models with…

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CeqC_{\mathrm{eq}}

Symbol C_eq

CeC_eq is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

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Published contexts (1)

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Ceq(t)=C∗⋅2 t/τ,τ≈8 months.C_{\mathrm{eq}}(t) = C^{*} \cdot 2^{\,t/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 8\ \mathrm{months}.

Equation 8 · Governance & Policy

What a Rule Can Bind When the System Changes Weekly

This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation.

Second, the meaning of a fixed number drifts, and quickly . Ho and colleagues, analysing more than two hundred language-model evaluations from 2012 to 2023, estimated that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved roughly every eight months, with a 95% confidence interval of about five to fourteen months [ 19 ] . If a threshold is fixed at C∗C^{*} and efficiency improves with a halving time τ\tau , the capability reachable below the threshold grows as though the budget were expanding: Ceq(t)=C∗⋅2 t/τ,τ≈8 monthsC_{\mathrm{eq}}(t) = C^{*} \cdot 2^{\,t/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 8\ \mathrm{months}. The analysis that follows is mine rather than the authors’. Taking the central estimate at face value, a threshold left unamended for two years admits models with…

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