Symbol β
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Because a “pass” verdict is itself often a noisy measurement, not a fact, it is worth being explicit about how much noise a single run’s outcome carries before treating a change in the pass rate as real. If a task’s true pass rate is p under a baseline configuration and a candidate change is worth detecting only once it shifts that rate by at least , the number of repeated trials needed per configuration to detect the shift reliably — at significance level and statistical power 1- — is approximately
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Equation 4 · Model Evaluation
Building a Custom Evaluation Suite for a Production Agent
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Because a “pass” verdict is itself often a noisy measurement, not a fact, it is worth being explicit about how much noise a single run’s outcome carries before treating a change in the pass rate as real. If a task’s true pass rate is p under a baseline configuration and a candidate change is worth detecting only once it shifts that rate by at least , the number of repeated trials needed per configuration to detect the shift reliably — at significance level and statistical power 1- — is approximately
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