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Equation 33 · Why Coding Agents Fail: Long-Horizon Reliability in OpenAI Codex

What does this equation mean?

Pr⁡(at least one success)=1−(1−q)k.\Pr(\text{at least one success})=1-(1-q)^k.

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Inputs and operations1-(1-q)^k
Result or conditionPr(at least one success)
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This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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qq

Symbol q

the probability.

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kk

Symbol k

the first rises with.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

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Pr⁡\Pr

Probability operator

The probability operator gives the chance of the event named inside its brackets or parentheses.

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How to interpret it

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What the article says around this equation

Code-generation research often reports pass@\mathrm{pass@}k : the probability that at least one of k sampled solutions passes. If independent attempts each succeed with probability q , then Pr⁡(at least one success)=1−(1−q)k\Pr(\text{at least one success})=1-(1-q)^k. This is valuable for search: more attempts increase the chance of finding one acceptable candidate. Production consistency asks a different question. If k required deployments must all succeed, the same independence simplification gives

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