Equation 13 · Why Coding Agents Fail: Long-Horizon Reliability in OpenAI Codex
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Symbol p
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The equal- p simplification illustrates scale: 0.99^{100}0.366 . This is not a model of real coding trajectories—the stages are correlated, checkpoints exist, and some errors are reversible—but it defeats one intuition. “Usually correct” local behavior does not imply dependable long execution.
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