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Equation 4 · Who Builds 2100? The Demographic Engine of Technological Evolution

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λ\lambda

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λ\lambda

Symbol λ

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where n is the growth rate of the population of researchers, ϕ\phi measures how much easier or harder each new idea makes the next one to find (values below 1 are required for the model’s growth path to be stable at all — the discipline’s own name for this is diminishing returns to knowledge accumulation), and λ\lambda measures how much duplicated research effort — different teams stumbling onto the same idea — dilutes each additional researcher’s marginal contribution. The formula says something that should be intuitive from the fitness-landscape framing: if the population of people searching for new technology stops growing, n falls toward zero, and the long-run growth rate of ideas falls…
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where n is the growth rate of the population of researchers, ϕ\phi measures how much easier or harder each new idea makes the next one to find (values below 1 are required for the model’s growth path to be stable at all — the discipline’s own name for this is diminishing returns to knowledge accumulation), and λ\lambda measures how much duplicated research effort — different teams stumbling onto the same idea — dilutes each additional researcher’s marginal contribution. The formula says something that should be intuitive from the fitness-landscape framing: if the population of people searching for new technology stops growing, n falls toward zero, and the long-run growth rate of ideas falls with it, one for one, unless something else changes λ\lambda or ϕ\phi .

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