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Equation 20 · Who Builds 2100? The Demographic Engine of Technological Evolution

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gCg_C

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gCg_C

Symbol g_C

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subscript

subscript

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Reading the table left to right along the top row: under the UN’s higher population trajectory and a continuation of Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb’s documented historical pattern of declining human research productivity, the growth rate of ideas keeps decelerating, but more slowly than under any lower-population path, because a larger absolute pool of researchers, even at declining individual productivity, still generates more total research effort than a smaller one — the same logic that let the aggregate US economy sustain steady growth for decades by tripling its effective researcher count even as per-researcher productivity collapsed [ 3 ] . Assumptions: the UN’s medium-fertility…
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Reading the table left to right along the top row: under the UN’s higher population trajectory and a continuation of Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb’s documented historical pattern of declining human research productivity, the growth rate of ideas keeps decelerating, but more slowly than under any lower-population path, because a larger absolute pool of researchers, even at declining individual productivity, still generates more total research effort than a smaller one — the same logic that let the aggregate US economy sustain steady growth for decades by tripling its effective researcher count even as per-researcher productivity collapsed [ 3 ] . Assumptions: the UN’s medium-fertility scenario materializes; no AI-driven automation of research tasks reaches the scale Aghion, Jones, and Jones’s gCg_C term describes. Indicator: aggregate research-effort growth (R&D spending deflated by researcher wages, or head-count of researchers in national science statistics) continuing to rise in step with population, without an accompanying discontinuity in AI-attributed discovery counts. Horizon: 2050. Falsifier: either the UN’s own population trajectory is revised down toward IHME’s in a subsequent World Population Prospects revision, or AI-attributed discovery counts of the kind Section 5 describes rise sharply rather than staying flat — either would move this article’s classification of 2100 out of this box.

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