Equation 7 · What a Rule Can Bind When the System Changes Weekly
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the halving time. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
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Second, the meaning of a fixed number drifts, and quickly . Ho and colleagues, analysing more than two hundred language-model evaluations from 2012 to 2023, estimated that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved roughly every eight months, with a 95% confidence interval of about five to fourteen months [ 19 ] . If a threshold is fixed at and efficiency improves with a halving time , the capability reachable below the threshold grows as though the budget were expanding:
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