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Equation 3 · Part 5 · Two Different Bets on How to Align a Frontier Model

subtraction

pk=1−(1−p)k,p_k = 1 - (1-p)^k,
subtraction

What this part means

Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.

Its job in the formula

Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.

The passage around this formula

There is a simple reason a single successful transfer matters more than its raw success rate suggests. If one crafted probe defeats a given safety-trained policy with probability p , and successive attempts against it were independent, the probability that at least one of k attempts succeeds is pk=1−(1−p)kp_k = 1 - (1-p)^k. which climbs quickly even when p is small per attempt. Two caveats matter as much as the formula. Attempts against one fixed, deployed model are usually correlated rather than independent, so real gains from repeated probing fall below this bound; and a universal, transferable suffix is close to the case the formula flatters most, because it is a single artefact effective across…

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Learn the underlying idea

Addition combines quantities; subtraction measures the signed difference between them. Parentheses show what is combined before the rest of the expression is evaluated.

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Sources cited in the article section

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