Equation 26 · Forty Million Clicks Through One Uneven Door
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This is a DERIVED quantity, not a measurement: it has not been run against real per-country population totals or the actual SharedResponsesSurvey.csv microdata, and no value of for any real country is claimed here. What can be computed honestly, using only the paper’s own reported extremes for n — 101 respondents at the low end, 448,125 at the high end [ 1 ] — is how small would need to be, at illustrative (not dataset-matched) population scales, to produce a cross-country divergence of = 0.1 , a magnitude in the range visible between clusters in the paper’s own Fig. 3b radar plot. For a nation of order 10^{6} residents sampled at n=101 : f …
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This is a DERIVED quantity, not a measurement: it has not been run against real per-country population totals or the actual SharedResponsesSurvey.csv microdata, and no value of for any real country is claimed here. What can be computed honestly, using only the paper’s own reported extremes for n — 101 respondents at the low end, 448,125 at the high end [ 1 ] — is how small would need to be, at illustrative (not dataset-matched) population scales, to produce a cross-country divergence of = 0.1 , a magnitude in the range visible between clusters in the paper’s own Fig. 3b radar plot. For a nation of order 10^{6} residents sampled at n=101 : f 1.0110^{-4} , giving 0.002 . For a nation of order 310^{8} residents sampled at n=448{,}125 : f 1.4910^{-3} , giving 0.0077 . Both bounds sit an order of magnitude below the largest within-sample demographic coefficient the paper itself reports (0.091) as too small to worry about. If a correlation on the order of two-thousandths to eight-thousandths between “reaches the Moral Machine” and “holds this particular moral preference” is enough to move a country’s measured position by as much as the clusters differ, the paper’s own demonstration that observed demographics barely move the estimates does not bound the unobserved selection process nearly as tightly as it appears to. Using a more conservative = 0.3 , reflecting that most individual preference indicators are not split near 50/50, raises both bounds by roughly two-thirds — to about 0.003 and 0.013 — without changing the conclusion that the required leak is tiny.
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