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Equation 10 · The Hardest Unsolved Problems in Open-Weight AI

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strues_{\text{true}}

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the underlying capability the benchmark intends to measure. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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strues_{\text{true}}

Symbol s_true

the underlying capability the benchmark intends to measure.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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How to interpret it

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What the article says around this equation

A simple decomposition makes clear why this is a measurement problem and not merely an inconvenience. Let sobss_{\text{obs}} be an observed benchmark score, strues_{\text{true}} the underlying capability the benchmark intends to measure, and c the fraction of test instances the model has effectively memorized, whether verbatim or through a rephrased variant. If a memorized instance is answered correctly with certainty, then approximately

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