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Equation 4 · The Hardest Unsolved Problems in Frontier AI Model Comparisons

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θi\theta_i

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some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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θi\theta_i

Symbol theta_i

some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i.

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subscript

subscript

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where θi\theta_i is some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i , gbg_b is the mapping from ability to expected score that is specific to benchmark b and not shared across benchmarks, δi,b\delta_{i,b} is a contamination or leakage term specific to that model-benchmark pair, and εi,b\varepsilon_{i,b} is sampling and decoding noise. Because gbg_b differs across benchmarks by construction — a multiple-choice knowledge test and a pairwise human-preference vote are not measuring the same projection of θi\theta_i — there is no aggregation operator that turns a vector of s^i,b\hat{s}_{i,b} values into a single number without an additional, unverified assumption about how the gbg_b functions relate to one…
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where θi\theta_i is some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i , gbg_b is the mapping from ability to expected score that is specific to benchmark b and not shared across benchmarks, δi,b\delta_{i,b} is a contamination or leakage term specific to that model-benchmark pair, and εi,b\varepsilon_{i,b} is sampling and decoding noise. Because gbg_b differs across benchmarks by construction — a multiple-choice knowledge test and a pairwise human-preference vote are not measuring the same projection of θi\theta_i — there is no aggregation operator that turns a vector of s^i,b\hat{s}_{i,b} values into a single number without an additional, unverified assumption about how the gbg_b functions relate to one another. HELM’s response is to refuse the aggregation and publish the matrix. Epoch’s response is to aggregate anyway, for a stated and narrower purpose. Neither is wrong; neither solves the general problem, because the general problem — finding the true, benchmark-independent θi\theta_i from observed s^i,b\hat{s}_{i,b} — remains open.

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