Equation 12 · The Hardest Unsolved Problems in Frontier AI Model Comparisons
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where is some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i , is the mapping from ability to expected score that is specific to benchmark b and not shared across benchmarks, is a contamination or leakage term specific to that model-benchmark pair, and is sampling and decoding noise. Because differs across benchmarks by construction — a multiple-choice knowledge test and a pairwise human-preference vote are not measuring the same projection of — there is no aggregation operator that turns a vector of values into a single number without an additional, unverified assumption about how the functions relate to one…
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where is some unobservable underlying ability vector for model i , is the mapping from ability to expected score that is specific to benchmark b and not shared across benchmarks, is a contamination or leakage term specific to that model-benchmark pair, and is sampling and decoding noise. Because differs across benchmarks by construction — a multiple-choice knowledge test and a pairwise human-preference vote are not measuring the same projection of — there is no aggregation operator that turns a vector of values into a single number without an additional, unverified assumption about how the functions relate to one another. HELM’s response is to refuse the aggregation and publish the matrix. Epoch’s response is to aggregate anyway, for a stated and narrower purpose. Neither is wrong; neither solves the general problem, because the general problem — finding the true, benchmark-independent from observed — remains open.
Sources cited in the article section
- [7] Holistic Evaluation of Language Models ↗
- [11] AI Capabilities and Benchmarking Hub ↗
- [6] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks ↗
- [12] Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.
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