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The passage around this formula

Epoch AI, a research organisation that tracks compute at the frontier, publishes exactly this kind of reconstruction for Colossus and states its own confidence in bands rather than single numbers: an estimate graded “Confident” carries roughly ±3x uncertainty, “Likely” roughly ±10x, and “Speculative” roughly ±31x [ 4 ] . Those three multipliers are not arbitrary; they sit at half-order-of-magnitude steps, $u_k = 10^{k/2}, \qquad k \in \{1, 2, 3\}$. giving $u_1$ $\approx$ 3.16 , $u_2$ = 10 , and $u_3$ $\approx$ 31.6 — which is a formal way of saying that even a well-resourced independent estimate of a frontier training run can be off by an order of magnitude or more, and everyone doing the estimating knows it going in.…

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