← Back to article

Equation 2 · The Hardest Unsolved Problems in AI Agent Evaluation and Reliability

What does this equation mean?

pass@k=1−(1−p)k,passk=pk,\text{pass@}k = 1-(1-p)^k, \qquad \text{pass}^k = p^k,

Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.

Inputs and operations1-(1-p)^k, qquad pass^k = p^k
Result or conditionpass@k
How to read the two sides of this formula. Follow the article passage for the meaning of each quantity.

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

Read it piece by piece

kk

Symbol k

k is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

Understand this part →

pp

Symbol p

the probability.

Understand this part →

pkp^k

Symbol p^k

pkp^k is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

Understand this part →

=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

Understand this part →

See an illustrated explanation →
superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

Understand this part →

See an illustrated explanation →

How to interpret it

Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

Large language model agents are not deterministic in practice, even holding the prompt and the environment fixed, and this is why the tool-use literature evaluates repeated trials rather than single runs. τ-bench formalizes the distinction with two related quantities. If a single attempt succeeds with probability p , and attempts are treated as independent, pass@k=1−(1−p)k,passk=pk\text{pass@}k = 1-(1-p)^k, \qquad \text{pass}^k = p^k. where pass@ k is the probability that at least one of k attempts succeeds, and pass ^k is the probability that all k succeed [ 3 ] . The two statistics move in opposite directions as k grows: pass@ k climbs toward certainty, which is the right question when a system can retry until something works or a human picks the…
Read the full surrounding passage
Large language model agents are not deterministic in practice, even holding the prompt and the environment fixed, and this is why the tool-use literature evaluates repeated trials rather than single runs. τ-bench formalizes the distinction with two related quantities. If a single attempt succeeds with probability p , and attempts are treated as independent, pass@k=1−(1−p)k,passk=pk\text{pass@}k = 1-(1-p)^k, \qquad \text{pass}^k = p^k. where pass@ k is the probability that at least one of k attempts succeeds, and pass ^k is the probability that all k succeed [ 3 ] . The two statistics move in opposite directions as k grows: pass@ k climbs toward certainty, which is the right question when a system can retry until something works or a human picks the best of several drafts, while pass ^k falls toward zero, which is the right question for an agent deployed without a human standing by to catch the failures. Yao and colleagues report that state-of-the-art function-calling agents solved under half of τ-bench’s tasks on a single attempt, and that their pass ^k scores fell substantially with repeated trials of the same task under identical starting conditions, exposing an inconsistency that a single pass rate could not reveal on its own [ 3 ] .

Read the equation in its article →

Sources cited in the surrounding passage

These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.

Return to The Hardest Unsolved Problems in AI Agent Evaluation and Reliability

See this formula across 1 published context →

Browse the mathematical compendium →