← All parts of this equation

Equation 12 · Part 2 · The Hardest Unsolved Problems in AI Agent Evaluation and Reliability

Symbol t

T50(t)≈T50(t0)⋅2(t−t0)/τ,τ≈7 months,T_{50}(t) \approx T_{50}(t_0)\cdot 2^{(t-t_0)/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 7\text{ months},
tt

What this part means

t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Its job in the formula

t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

The clearest empirical trend in this area comes from METR, which measured how the length of software tasks that leading agents can complete at even odds has changed over time, expressed as a time horizon T50T_{50} - the length of task, in expert-human time, that an agent completes successfully half the time. Kwa and colleagues report that this time horizon has been doubling roughly every seven months since 2019, which can be written as an empirical fit T50(t)≈T50(t0)⋅2(t−t0)/τ,τ≈7 monthsT_{50}(t) \approx T_{50}(t_0)\cdot 2^{(t-t_0)/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 7\text{ months}. and they further find that this trend is driven substantially by improved reliability and error recovery over long horizons, not only by raw single-step capability [ 4 ] . This is a genuinely informative fact and it is also,…

Read this part in the article →

Learn the underlying idea

A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

Open the illustrated variables: a letter stands for a value guide →

See this notation across published equations →

Sources cited in the surrounding passage

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.