Equation 5 · The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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g^{t}

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g^{t}

Symbol g^t

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superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

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with g between roughly two-point-four and three-point-five depending on method and window [ 5 , 6 ] . The form matters more than the exact rate: exponential cost growth does not by itself predict consolidation. It predicts a shrinking count of organisations able to clear an ever-rising bar only if the pool of adequately capitalised entrants grows more slowly than $g^{t}$ . Whether that pool keeps pace is a question about capital markets and state investment, not something the cost curve alone answers — which is exactly why axis A stays open below rather than settled by this one fact.

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