Equation 4 · The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them
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with g between roughly two-point-four and three-point-five depending on method and window [ 5 , 6 ] . The form matters more than the exact rate: exponential cost growth does not by itself predict consolidation. It predicts a shrinking count of organisations able to clear an ever-rising bar only if the pool of adequately capitalised entrants grows more slowly than . Whether that pool keeps pace is a question about capital markets and state investment, not something the cost curve alone answers — which is exactly why axis A stays open below rather than settled by this one fact.
Sources cited in the article section
- [8] 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise ↗
- [12] Anthropic Overtakes OpenAI in B2B Adoption for the First Time, According to Ramp Spending Data ↗
- [5] The Rising Costs of Training Frontier AI Models ↗
- [6] Key Trends and Figures in Machine Learning ↗
- [7] FTC Staff Report on AI Partnerships & Investments 6(b) Study (Partnerships Between Cloud Service Providers and AI Developers) ↗
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