Equation 11 · The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them
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where B(t) is a provider’s position on a composite benchmark or leaderboard index at time t , D(t) is its position on a deployment-outcome measure such as production task completion or retained enterprise share, and w(t) [0,1] is the weight public comparison, procurement practice and press coverage place on the benchmark term. Axis B is precisely a claim about where w(t) is heading: toward one, where the scenario names below carry the word “Board,” or toward zero, where they carry the word “Ledger” instead. No source cited in this article reports w(t) directly as a number, which is the honest reason this is an axis and not an already-settled fact.
Sources cited in the article section
- [10] DeepSeek-R1 Incentivizes Reasoning in LLMs through Reinforcement Learning ↗
- [1] Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference ↗
- [2] The Leaderboard Illusion ↗
- [4] The 2026 AI Index Report ↗
- [8] 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.