Equation 15 · The Benchmarks That Don't Need the Image
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which for a four-option item run through all four rotations is (1/4)^4 , under half a percent. That is not a real prediction of model behavior — actual models are not memoryless guessers, and a model with a fixed positional bias will do considerably worse than this floor once the correct answer rotates away from its favored slot, while a model with genuine content understanding will pass reliably regardless of k or N . The independence assumption is a deliberate simplification, useful only for showing why the two behaviors CircularEval separates — answering from content, and answering from position — land so far apart in practice, exactly as the OpenFlamingo v2 result illustrates.
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