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Equation 2 · Ten Ways Mechanistic Interpretability Research Can Mislead You

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α\alpha

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the small probability. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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α\alpha

Symbol α

the small probability.

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What the article says around this equation

Put simply: if a search evaluates k candidate directions against a validation check, and each candidate independently has a small probability α\alpha of appearing to pass that check purely by chance — because it happens to correlate with the labeled examples used to test it — then the probability that the search turns up at least one apparent “finding” is

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