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The passage around this formula

5. Non-independence between repeated trials. The confidence-interval formula above assumes each trial is independent of the others, and that assumption is often false in ways that specifically inflate confidence. Miller’s paper measures this directly: several widely used evaluation sets draw multiple questions from a shared context — several questions about the same passage, several sub-tasks from the same underlying scenario — and properly accounting for that clustering, rather than treating every question as its own independent draw, produced clustered standard errors “over 3x larger than naive standard errors” on the affected evals [ 8 ] . The general relationship is the one long used in…

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