← All parts of this equation

Equation 1 · Part 5 · Ten Failure Modes That Show Up Across Every Frontier Model, Not Just One

=

sobserved=scapability+Δcontamination+Δconfigurations_{\text{observed}} = s_{\text{capability}} + \Delta_{\text{contamination}} + \Delta_{\text{configuration}}
=

What this part means

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

Its job in the formula

The equals sign connects the complete expression on the left with the complete expression on the right. Both sides must have compatible units.

The passage around this formula

One assumption threads through everything that follows, and it is worth making explicit before the catalogue starts. A published benchmark score is not a direct read of capability; it is a sum of capability plus at least two other things that vary independently of it: sobserved=scapability+Δcontamination+Δconfigurations_{\text{observed}} = s_{\text{capability}} + \Delta_{\text{contamination}} + \Delta_{\text{configuration}}. Δcontamination\Delta_{\text{contamination}} is inflation from the model having seen the benchmark, or something close to it, during training. Δconfiguration\Delta_{\text{configuration}} is variance from everything about how the question was asked, formatted, and scored — prompt wording, decoding settings, which variant answered. Both terms are provider-specific and time-specific; neither is disclosed by the headline number. Three of…

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Learn the underlying idea

An equals sign says that the expression on its left and the expression on its right have the same value under the stated definitions and assumptions.

Open the illustrated equality: what the equals sign claims guide →

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