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Equation 1 · Part 2 · Ten Failure Modes That Show Up Across Every Frontier Model, Not Just One

Symbol s_capability

sobserved=scapability+Δcontamination+Δconfigurations_{\text{observed}} = s_{\text{capability}} + \Delta_{\text{contamination}} + \Delta_{\text{configuration}}
scapabilitys_{\text{capability}}

What this part means

scs_capability is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

Its job in the formula

scs_capability is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

The passage around this formula

One assumption threads through everything that follows, and it is worth making explicit before the catalogue starts. A published benchmark score is not a direct read of capability; it is a sum of capability plus at least two other things that vary independently of it: sobserved=scapability+Δcontamination+Δconfigurations_{\text{observed}} = s_{\text{capability}} + \Delta_{\text{contamination}} + \Delta_{\text{configuration}}. Δcontamination\Delta_{\text{contamination}} is inflation from the model having seen the benchmark, or something close to it, during training. Δconfiguration\Delta_{\text{configuration}} is variance from everything about how the question was asked, formatted, and scored — prompt wording, decoding settings, which variant answered. Both terms are provider-specific and time-specific; neither is disclosed by the headline number. Three of…

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Learn the underlying idea

A subscript is a label attached below a symbol. It often selects a time step, component, category, or member of a sequence.

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