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Equation 10 · Part 1 · Selection Accounting: The Price Equation Runs the Economy

Symbol σ^2

Var⁡(Sel)=σ2∑isi2(zi−zˉ)2,Ne=1HHI\operatorname{Var}(\mathrm{Sel}) = \sigma^2 \sum_i s_i^2 (z_i - \bar z)^2, \qquad N_e = \frac{1}{\mathrm{HHI}}
σ2\sigma^2

What this part means

σ^2 is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

Its job in the formula

σ^2 is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

The passage around this formula

Every one of those covariance terms is a realized statistic computed on one historical sample path, and molecular evolution learned the hard way not to trust such statistics without a baseline: Kimura’s neutral theory showed that most measured molecular substitution is drift, not selection, and the field has required a null model ever since before crediting any pattern to adaptation. Proposition 4 supplies the economic equivalent. Assume market shares move by pure noise, uncorrelated with productivity — no firm is being selected for or against — and the expected value of the measured selection term is exactly zero. Its variance is not zero, and it has a closed form: Var⁡(Sel)=σ2∑isi2(zi−zˉ)2,Ne=1HHI\operatorname{Var}(\mathrm{Sel}) = \sigma^2 \sum_i s_i^2 (z_i - \bar z)^2, \qquad N_e = \frac{1}{\mathrm{HHI}}.…

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