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Equation 7 · RAG in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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MM

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the number of tokens. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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MM

Symbol M

the number of tokens.

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As a corpus grows, the two costs diverge regardless of how cheap or how large any single model’s window becomes, because M keeps growing too. This is the economic argument for why explicit retrieval persists even in scenarios where verifiability is weak: corpus growth, not just model quality, keeps a bounded fetch cheaper than a full paste. It says nothing about whether that fetch is checkable, which is exactly why Axis B has to be argued separately rather than assumed to follow from Axis A.

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