Equation 18 · Reliable AI Agents Are Control Systems, Not Chatbots
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Symbol k
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For a simplified independent model with one-run success probability q , the probability of succeeding in every one of k deployments is . At q=0.9 , eight consecutive successes occur with probability only 0.9^80.43 . Independence is again unrealistic, but the calculation expresses the right operational demand: a bank, compiler, or datacenter does not consume an average demo. It consumes a sequence of particular decisions.
Sources cited in the article section
- [9] SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues? ↗
- [10] tau-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains ↗
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