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Equation 3 · Part 2 · OpenAI and Claude on Formal Reasoning: What the Benchmarks Show, and Where They Mislead

Symbol p

pk=1−(1−p)k,p_k = 1 - (1-p)^k,
pp

What this part means

the probability.

Its job in the formula

p is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

Where the article explains it

If a single attempt at a problem succeeds with probability p , and k attempts were independent, the probability that at least one succeeds is pk=1−(1−p)kp_k = 1 - (1-p)^k.

The passage around this formula

Consider what the o1 numbers alone expose about how these gains are produced. If a single attempt at a problem succeeds with probability p , and k attempts were independent, the probability that at least one succeeds is pk=1−(1−p)kp_k = 1 - (1-p)^k. a curve that climbs fast and then saturates. It is tempting to read o1’s jump from 74% (one sample) to 83% (64-sample consensus) to 93% (1,000-sample rerank) as roughly this shape. It is not, for…

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Learn the underlying idea

A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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Sources cited in the surrounding passage

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.