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Equation 3 · Part 2 · Open-Weight AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

Symbol t

K(t)=1 ⁣[O(t)≥o∗]⋅1 ⁣[W(t)≥w∗]K(t) = \mathbb{1}\!\left[O(t) \ge o^{*}\right] \cdot \mathbb{1}\!\left[W(t) \ge w^{*}\right]
tt

What this part means

t is an argument of the function-like quantity on the left; its role is set by that function’s stated inputs.

Its job in the formula

t is an argument of the function-like quantity on the left; its role is set by that function’s stated inputs.

The passage around this formula

Whether the open-weight ecosystem consolidates around a handful of dominant families or stays fragmented across many providers is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write O(t) for a stylised index of how close the strongest open-weight models sit to the closed frontier — Axis A’s own proxy, anchored in the Epoch and Artificial Analysis readings above [ 1 , 4 ] — and W(t) for the share of open-weight releases operating under standardized external governance: a regulatory regime that reviews them the way closed deployment is reviewed, or a licence that is genuinely OSI-compatible rather than bespoke [ 16 ] . Reaching and holding a position near the frontier takes…

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A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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Sources cited in the surrounding passage

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