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Equation 2 · Measuring Frontier Models: Contamination, Variance, and What a Score Can Support

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ss

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ss

Symbol s

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Reframe the object. A benchmark score s^\hat{s} is an estimator of a population quantity s — the model’s success rate over some distribution of tasks D\mathcal{D} that somebody hopes resembles the work you actually have. Every property that makes an estimator trustworthy applies:

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