Numerator: 3

The passage around this formula

That bound has a name in elementary statistics, and it is worth stating plainly because it clarifies exactly what a clean red-team result can and cannot license. If k independent attempts are made against a fixed but unknown per-attempt bypass probability p , and all k fail, the standard “rule of three” approximation gives a roughly 95%-confidence upper bound on that probability of $p_{\max} \approx \frac{3}{k}$. Applied loosely to a red-team programme, this says a clean record is real evidence, and its strength depends entirely on k — the count of genuinely independent attempts, not the number of hours spent. The Constitutional Classifiers paper reports hours, not a count of independent attempts, so…

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