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Equation 4 · Part 3 · How Do We Actually Know a Safety Measure Worked?

fraction

pmax⁡≈3k.p_{\max} \approx \frac{3}{k}.
fraction

What this part means

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

Its job in the formula

The expression above the fraction bar is divided by the complete expression below it. The denominator must not be zero.

The passage around this formula

That bound has a name in elementary statistics, and it is worth stating plainly because it clarifies exactly what a clean red-team result can and cannot license. If k independent attempts are made against a fixed but unknown per-attempt bypass probability p , and all k fail, the standard “rule of three” approximation gives a roughly 95%-confidence upper bound on that probability of pmax⁡≈3kp_{\max} \approx \frac{3}{k}. Applied loosely to a red-team programme, this says a clean record is real evidence, and its strength depends entirely on k — the count of genuinely independent attempts, not the number of hours spent. The Constitutional Classifiers paper reports hours, not a count of independent attempts, so…

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Learn the underlying idea

A fraction a/b means a divided by b. The top number is the numerator; the bottom number is the denominator, and it cannot be zero.

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Sources cited in the article section

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.