Equation 2 · How Do We Actually Know a Safety Measure Worked?
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That bound has a name in elementary statistics, and it is worth stating plainly because it clarifies exactly what a clean red-team result can and cannot license. If k independent attempts are made against a fixed but unknown per-attempt bypass probability p , and all k fail, the standard “rule of three” approximation gives a roughly 95%-confidence upper bound on that probability of
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