Equation 1 · How Demography, Migration, and Urban Futures Actually Work
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The UN Population Division builds its projections using the cohort-component method : rather than extrapolating total population, it starts from the population by single year of age and sex in a base year, and ages every cohort forward one year at a time by applying age-specific and sex-specific survival probabilities (mortality), age-specific fertility rates applied to women of reproductive age (which generates the next year’s births), and net international migration assumptions applied by age [ 1 ] . Formally, for an age group a in year t :
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