Equation 2 · Part 1 · Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide

Symbol p_i

p_i

p_i

What this part means

the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and $o_i$ $\in$ \{0,1\} is the realized outcome.

Its job in the formula

$p_i$ is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Full expressionSymbol p_iArticle meaning

Where the article explains it

where $p_i$ is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and $o_i$ $\in$ \{0,1\} is the realized outcome.

The passage around this formula

where $p_i$ is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and $o_i$ $\in$ \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.

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Learn the underlying idea

A subscript is a label attached below a symbol. It often selects a time step, component, category, or member of a sequence.

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See this notation across published equations →

Sources cited in the article section

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.