Equation 1 · Part 13 · Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide
Ending index or upper bound: N
What this part means
This label says where the repeated addition, multiplication, or accumulation stops. It sets the last term or end of the range.
Its job in the formula
N occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.
Full expression→Ending index or upper bound: N→Article meaning
The passage around this formula
The Brier score is the mean squared error between a stated probability and the binary outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if it did not): . where is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.
Learn the underlying idea
Σ adds a collection of terms. Π multiplies them. The lower and upper labels tell you which terms belong to the collection.
Open the illustrated sums and products: repeat an operation over an index guide →
See this notation across published equations →
Sources cited in the article section
- [2] Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ↗
- [3] Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation ↗
- [7] A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule ↗
- [1] Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions ↗
- [4] Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program ↗
These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.