Equation 1 · Part 10 · Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide

superscript

B = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} (p_i - o_i)^2

superscript

What this part means

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

Its job in the formula

A raised mark can be a power or an index. Its position and the surrounding notation determine which.

Full expressionsuperscriptArticle meaning

The passage around this formula

The Brier score is the mean squared error between a stated probability and the binary outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if it did not): $B = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} (p_i - o_i)^2$ . where $p_i$ is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and $o_i$ $\in$ \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.

Read this part in the article →

Learn the underlying idea

An exponent tells how a base is used in multiplication. In x³, x is the base and 3 is the exponent: x³ = x × x × x.

Open the illustrated exponents: repeated multiplication and powers guide →

Sources cited in the article section

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.