Symbol t

The passage around this formula

…trend as a simple exponential makes its shape explicit: $T_{50}(t) \;=\; T_0 \cdot 2^{\,(t - t_0)/\tau}, \qquad \tau \approx 7 \text{ months}$. where $T_{50}(t)$ is the length of task, measured in human-hours, that a frontier agent could complete autonomously with 50% reliability at time t . This is an empirical regression over six years of a specific evaluation methodology, not a law of nature, and METR’s own reporting is explicit that the trend could bend in either direction; it is included here because it is the clearest available answer to “how would you know if agentic coding…

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