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Equation 12 · Flight at the Energy Floor: Transport Selection to 2100

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ln⁡(W1/W2)\ln(W_1/W_2)

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W1W_1

Symbol W_1

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W2W_2

Symbol W_2

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subscript

subscript

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Jet fuel carries about 43 megajoules of chemical energy per kilogram, or roughly 11,944 watt-hours per kilogram [ 2 ] . A modern commercial lithium-ion cell, by contrast, runs 160 to 300 watt-hours per kilogram at the cell level, with specialty laboratory cells using silicon-anode and graphene-enhanced chemistries reaching a record of roughly 450 watt-hours per kilogram [ 3 ] — figures that describe a bare cell, not a certified aircraft pack, which must add cooling, structure, wiring, and safety margin on top. A widely cited 2018 estimate for a packaged aviation battery, including that overhead, put usable specific energy at around 160 watt-hours per kilogram, or about two percent of…
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Jet fuel carries about 43 megajoules of chemical energy per kilogram, or roughly 11,944 watt-hours per kilogram [ 2 ] . A modern commercial lithium-ion cell, by contrast, runs 160 to 300 watt-hours per kilogram at the cell level, with specialty laboratory cells using silicon-anode and graphene-enhanced chemistries reaching a record of roughly 450 watt-hours per kilogram [ 3 ] — figures that describe a bare cell, not a certified aircraft pack, which must add cooling, structure, wiring, and safety margin on top. A widely cited 2018 estimate for a packaged aviation battery, including that overhead, put usable specific energy at around 160 watt-hours per kilogram, or about two percent of aviation fuel’s figure on the same basis [ 4 ] . The same analysis worked the arithmetic for a 19-seat regional turboprop flying a mission requiring the usual instrument-flight-rules fuel reserves: the mission needs 308 kilograms of jet fuel, or 4,300 kilograms of 250-watt-hour-per-kilogram batteries to store the same usable energy — nearly fourteen times the mass for the same energy content [ 4 ] . Run that mass penalty back through the Breguet equation’s ln⁡(W1/W2)\ln(W_1/W_2) term and the result is not a smaller aircraft flying the same mission; it is the same aircraft flying a much shorter one, which is exactly the pattern the verified programs below show. The same source states the scaling problem in its starkest form: for a large passenger aircraft, closing the gap to kerosene parity would require roughly a twentyfold improvement in energy density over today’s lithium-ion chemistry [ 4 ] — not a chemistry refinement but a chemistry replacement.

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