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Equation 1 · Part 1 · Building a Deployment Safety System That Actually Holds

Symbol pi

Precision=TPR⋅πTPR⋅π+FPR⋅(1−π),\text{Precision} = \frac{\mathrm{TPR} \cdot \pi}{\mathrm{TPR} \cdot \pi + \mathrm{FPR} \cdot (1 - \pi)},
π\pi

What this part means

the base rate.

Its job in the formula

pi is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

Where the article explains it

where TPR\mathrm{TPR} and FPR\mathrm{FPR} are the true- and false-positive rates and π\pi is the base rate.

The passage around this formula

…ordinary case for a general-purpose product, precision — the share of flagged requests that are actually harmful — is Precision=TPR⋅πTPR⋅π+FPR⋅(1−π)\text{Precision} = \frac{\mathrm{TPR} \cdot \pi}{\mathrm{TPR} \cdot \pi + \mathrm{FPR} \cdot (1 - \pi)}. where TPR\mathrm{TPR} and FPR\mathrm{FPR} are the true- and false-positive rates and π\pi is the base rate. Plugging in TPR\mathrm{TPR} = 0.98 , FPR\mathrm{FPR} = 0.01 and π\pi = 0.0005 gives a precision of roughly 4.7%: more than nineteen out of twenty flagged requests are false alarms, even though the classifier’s headline accuracy sounds close to perfect. This is not a defect specific…

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Learn the underlying idea

A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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Sources cited in the article section

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