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Equation 2 · Part 1 · Attribution: Tying One Event to a Changing Climate

Symbol p_0

lim⁡p0→0PR=∞,lim⁡p0→0FAR=1.\lim_{p_0 \to 0} \mathrm{PR} = \infty, \qquad \lim_{p_0 \to 0} \mathrm{FAR} = 1.
p0p_0

What this part means

p0p_0 is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

Its job in the formula

p0p_0 is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

The passage around this formula

The arithmetic also misbehaves exactly where the events are most interesting. As the counterfactual probability falls toward zero, lim⁡p0→0PR=∞,lim⁡p0→0FAR=1\lim_{p_0 \to 0} \mathrm{PR} = \infty, \qquad \lim_{p_0 \to 0} \mathrm{FAR} = 1. AR6 records that several studies of events from 2016 onward reported an infinite risk ratio, corresponding to a fraction of attributable risk of one, because the event’s occurrence probability was close to zero in simulations without anthropogenic influence — while noting in the same passage that the lower bound of the uncertainty range is difficult to estimate accurately in these cases [ 1 ] . Paciorek, Stone and Wehner develop a frequentist framework for exactly this sampling problem and argue that the bootstrap widely used in the…

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Sources cited in the surrounding passage

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