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Equation 3 · Part 4 · Anthropic in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol tau_4

Safeguard(m)={ASL-2,R(m)<τ3ASL-3,τ3≤R(m)<τ4ASL-4,R(m)≥τ4\text{Safeguard}(m) = \begin{cases} \text{ASL-2}, & R(m) < \tau_3 \\ \text{ASL-3}, & \tau_3 \le R(m) < \tau_4 \\ \text{ASL-4}, & R(m) \ge \tau_4 \end{cases}
τ4\tau_4

What this part means

tau4u_4 is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

Its job in the formula

tau4u_4 is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

The passage around this formula

The threshold-triggered structure underneath all three versions is stable even as what triggers what has moved. Write R(m) for a model’s assessed risk on a given threat class and τ3\tau_3, τ4\tau_4 for the thresholds separating safety tiers: Safeguard(m)={ASL-2,R(m)<τ3ASL-3,τ3≤R(m)<τ4ASL-4,R(m)≥τ4\text{Safeguard}(m) = \begin{cases} \text{ASL-2}, & R(m) < \tau_3 \\ \text{ASL-3}, & \tau_3 \le R(m) < \tau_4 \\ \text{ASL-4}, & R(m) \ge \tau_4 \end{cases}. What changed between versions is not this shape but the codomain attached to crossing a threshold . Under the original policy, crossing the top implied a commitment to halt. From version 3.0 onward, the same crossing implies an…

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