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Equation 1 · Anthropic in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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R(m)R(m)

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RR

Symbol R

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mm

Symbol m

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The threshold-triggered structure underneath all three versions is stable even as what triggers what has moved. Write R(m) for a model’s assessed risk on a given threat class and τ3\tau_3, τ4\tau_4 for the thresholds separating safety tiers:

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