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Equation 16 · AI Datacenter Systems Engineering in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions

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NN

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NN

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​ purely from the failure-rate side as accelerator count N grows. Comparing that to MLPerf’s own reported tightening — interval falling from 9.3 to 1.5 minutes, a 6.2-times increase in frequency, as scale rises 6.25-times from 16,000 to 100,000 accelerators — the real tightening is close to linear in scale, noticeably steeper than the N\sqrt{N} this simple model predicts. That gap is informative rather than a contradiction: it is consistent with operators holding a fixed acceptable progress-loss percentage (MLPerf specifies 5%) rather than freely re-optimizing T against τ\tau and λ\lambda jointly, and with τ\tau itself growing as checkpoints get larger at larger scale — both push the real…
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​ purely from the failure-rate side as accelerator count N grows. Comparing that to MLPerf’s own reported tightening — interval falling from 9.3 to 1.5 minutes, a 6.2-times increase in frequency, as scale rises 6.25-times from 16,000 to 100,000 accelerators — the real tightening is close to linear in scale, noticeably steeper than the N\sqrt{N} this simple model predicts. That gap is informative rather than a contradiction: it is consistent with operators holding a fixed acceptable progress-loss percentage (MLPerf specifies 5%) rather than freely re-optimizing T against τ\tau and λ\lambda jointly, and with τ\tau itself growing as checkpoints get larger at larger scale — both push the real interval down faster than a pure failure-rate argument would. None of the cited sources explains that gap directly; this derivation is offered to sharpen the open question, not to answer it.

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