Equation 5 · AI Alignment and Safety in 2035: Two Axes, Four Scenarios, and What Would Falsify Them
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the field-wide growth rate of. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
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The gap narrows exactly when verification coverage grows faster than capability does. Axis A determines whether V/t can be large at all — whether there is a technique to scale in the first place. Axis B determines how much of any technical gain is actually applied across the field rather than sitting inside one lab’s internal practice, acting as a multiplier on the effective, field-wide growth rate of V . A technique that works in one laboratory’s hands but is never externally audited or adopted elsewhere raises V for that laboratory alone; the field-wide V(t) this equation needs barely moves. That is why the gap is downstream of both axes rather than a genuinely…
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The gap narrows exactly when verification coverage grows faster than capability does. Axis A determines whether V/t can be large at all — whether there is a technique to scale in the first place. Axis B determines how much of any technical gain is actually applied across the field rather than sitting inside one lab’s internal practice, acting as a multiplier on the effective, field-wide growth rate of V . A technique that works in one laboratory’s hands but is never externally audited or adopted elsewhere raises V for that laboratory alone; the field-wide V(t) this equation needs barely moves. That is why the gap is downstream of both axes rather than a genuinely independent third question: no combination of assumptions lets it move without one or both axes above having already moved first.
Sources cited in the article section
- [5] Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training ↗
- [8] Top OpenAI researcher resigns, saying company prioritized 'shiny products' over AI safety ↗
- [16] Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.
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