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Equation 1 · Part 2 · AI Alignment and Safety in 2035: Two Axes, Four Scenarios, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol t

C(t)C(t)
tt

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t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

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t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

Whether the documented gap between capability and verified safety narrows or widens is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write C(t) for a stylised index of frontier capability — METR’s time-horizon trend is the best-measured available proxy [ 16 ] — and V(t) for an index of independently checkable verification coverage: the share of a system’s decision-relevant behaviour that something other than watching its output can vouch for. The gap is

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