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Equation 8 · AI Agent Architecture in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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p(a)p(a)

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pp

Symbol p

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aa

Symbol a

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where B is a risk budget set by policy. The rule only does useful work where p(a) is a number someone can trust — which is exactly what Axis B’s certified branch would supply and its empirical branch would not. Under empirical, best-effort reliability, the closest available substitute for p(a) is a benchmark pass rate like tau-bench’s, which the benchmark’s own authors built a new metric to correct for precisely because it was not a stable, trial-to-trial guarantee [ 10 ] . Plugging an unstable estimate into the rule above collapses it to “human required” for anything consequential, regardless of how the automation policy is worded — which is why Article 14’s current human-oversight…
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where B is a risk budget set by policy. The rule only does useful work where p(a) is a number someone can trust — which is exactly what Axis B’s certified branch would supply and its empirical branch would not. Under empirical, best-effort reliability, the closest available substitute for p(a) is a benchmark pass rate like tau-bench’s, which the benchmark’s own authors built a new metric to correct for precisely because it was not a stable, trial-to-trial guarantee [ 10 ] . Plugging an unstable estimate into the rule above collapses it to “human required” for anything consequential, regardless of how the automation policy is worded — which is why Article 14’s current human-oversight requirement sits comfortably on Axis B’s empirical branch rather than needing a rule of its own [ 13 ] . The approval question does not have independent content beyond asking, again, whether Axis B resolves toward certified or stays empirical.

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