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The passage around this formula

gives a rough sense of how much noise sits under a given n , even granting the generous and almost certainly false assumption that every task in the set is an equally difficult coin flip. At the widest plausible spread, $\hat p$ = 0.5 , a 95% interval ( $z_{\alpha/2}$ $\approx$ 1.96 ) works out to roughly $\pm$ 13.9 points on a fifty-task set — close to the size of tau-bench’s original airline domain or GAIA’s seventy-five-question Level 3 tier — versus roughly $\pm$ 4.4 points on SWE-bench Verified’s five hundred tasks, or $\pm$ 5.1 points on OSWorld’s 369. A three- or four-point difference between two systems on a fifty- or seventy-five-task slice is, on this generous accounting, close to noise; the…

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