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Equation 9 · A History of How We Learned to Evaluate AI Agents

What does this equation mean?

pass@k  =  Eproblems ⁣[ 1−(n−ck)(nk) ].\text{pass@}k \;=\; \mathbb{E}_{\text{problems}}\!\left[\,1 - \frac{\binom{n-c}{k}}{\binom{n}{k}}\,\right].

Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.

Start withbinomn-ck
Divide bybinomnk
This relates topass@k
How to read the two sides of this formula. Follow the article passage for the meaning of each quantity.

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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kk

Symbol k

the especially at small.

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Eproblems\mathbb{E}_{\text{problems}}

Symbol E_problems

EpE_problems appears inside an expected value, so its contribution is averaged under the distribution or condition shown by that operator.

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nn

Symbol n

the number of samples.

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cc

Symbol c

c occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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fraction

fraction

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

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subtraction

subtraction

Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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(n−ck)\binom{n-c}{k}

Numerator: binomn-ck

The complete quantity above the fraction bar.

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(nk)\binom{n}{k}

Denominator: binomnk

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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How to interpret it

With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

That last detail forced a genuine statistical problem into agent-adjacent evaluation for the first time: naively estimating the chance that at least one of k sampled attempts succeeds, by drawing exactly k samples and checking, is a high-variance estimator, especially at small k . Chen and colleagues instead drew a larger fixed pool of n samples per problem, counted the number c that passed, and computed an unbiased estimate of the pass rate at budget k directly from that pool: pass@k  =  Eproblems ⁣[ 1−(n−ck)(nk) ]\text{pass@}k \;=\; \mathbb{E}_{\text{problems}}\!\left[\,1 - \frac{\binom{n-c}{k}}{\binom{n}{k}}\,\right]. The term inside the brackets is the probability that a random draw of k items from the n samples contains no passing solution, so one minus that quantity is the probability at least one does. The…
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That last detail forced a genuine statistical problem into agent-adjacent evaluation for the first time: naively estimating the chance that at least one of k sampled attempts succeeds, by drawing exactly k samples and checking, is a high-variance estimator, especially at small k . Chen and colleagues instead drew a larger fixed pool of n samples per problem, counted the number c that passed, and computed an unbiased estimate of the pass rate at budget k directly from that pool: pass@k  =  Eproblems ⁣[ 1−(n−ck)(nk) ]\text{pass@}k \;=\; \mathbb{E}_{\text{problems}}\!\left[\,1 - \frac{\binom{n-c}{k}}{\binom{n}{k}}\,\right]. The term inside the brackets is the probability that a random draw of k items from the n samples contains no passing solution, so one minus that quantity is the probability at least one does. The point of writing the estimator this way, rather than simply sampling k times per problem, is to separate two things later agent benchmarks would have to separate again and again: how good a system is, and how much it was allowed to try. Every agent benchmark discussed below that reports a success rate is implicitly answering the question this estimator first made explicit — success at what sampling budget, counted how.

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