#uncertainty

A forecasting operations room with three distinct desks — a probability-slider terminal bank, a pinned scenario matrix board, and a glass-walled server rack showing a live market feed — arranged around a shared pale table

Comparing the Main Approaches to Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios

Probabilistic tournaments, narrative scenario planning, and prediction markets all claim to prepare institutions for an uncertain future — on different dimensions, with different failure modes, and none as a replacement for the others.

By Brecht Corbeel · August 28, 2026 · 14 min read

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