#market concentration

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A bright competitive-intelligence research room with a long walnut capability-tracking bench in the foreground, a small frosted-acrylic puck caught mid-slide along its calibrated brass rail, and a brushed-steel market-positioning wall with four clusters of magnet-held cards beyond it

The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Two variables decide the frontier-model contest by 2035: how many labs stay near the frontier, and whether the public signal of leadership is benchmark score or deployment outcome. Four scenarios follow, each with a falsifier.

By Brecht Corbeel · August 12, 2026 · 20 min read

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